Wintermute Sees Early Bitcoin Accumulation but Says Recovery Lacks Confirmation
Bitcoin’s sharp fall below $62,000 was driven less by Strategy’s symbolic sale of 32 BTC and more by weakening institutional flows, according to Wintermute.
The market maker said bitcoin dropped about 14% over the week, reaching levels last seen in September 2024. While Strategy’s sale marked its first bitcoin disposal since 2022, Wintermute described the size as immaterial. The signal mattered more than the volume because it landed in a market already losing support.
The real pressure, Wintermute said, came from U.S. institutions and spot bitcoin ETF redemptions. The firm said its over-the-counter desk had seen retail investors selling crypto while chasing equity returns. U.S. institutional clients also turned bearish in recent days, while Asia and Europe remained more balanced.
ETF data reinforced that picture. Bitcoin spot funds recorded 10 straight sessions of outflows from May 15 through to May 29, the longest streak since launch. Total redemptions reached about $2.97 billion during the run, leaving May with $2.43 billion in net outflows, the weakest month of 2026.
Labour Report Adds Further Strain on Markets
Wintermute said the recent weakness comes as broader risk appetite is being tested. A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, compared with expectations of about 80,000, while April was revised up to 179,000 from 115,000.
Other data also pointed to sticky inflation pressure. Job openings rose to 7.6 million, their highest level in nearly two years, and ISM services prices reached their highest point since August 2022. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.55%.
Still, the labor market is showing strain beneath the headline numbers. Jobless claims rose to 225,000, their highest since February, and announced layoffs increased for a third straight month, with companies citing AI as a key factor.
Equities added to the pressure. The Nasdaq fell 4.7%, while the S&P 500 posted its first weekly loss since March. Wintermute said the AI trade appears to be losing momentum after stretched valuations, rising issuance, and oil volatility weighed on sentiment.
The firm also flagged the June 12 SpaceX market debut as a key test of risk appetite. A strong placement could steady markets, while weak demand may signal broader exhaustion.
Wintermute said some long-term investors have started accumulating bitcoin near current levels. Even so, it is not calling a bottom. Without clear signs of fresh inflows, and with macro conditions still difficult, the firm said the market has not yet confirmed a durable recovery.
