Services Sector Stalls – A Sign of Stagflation?
The most worrying sign is the new orders index, a leading indicator, which dropped to 45.3, its lowest level since the pandemic. This is the first time since 2023 that this index has fallen below 50. This indicates that US consumer demand in the services sector is weakening rapidly, a dangerous trend in a climate where prices remain stubbornly high. The combination of weakening demand and unabated inflation raises concerns about stagflation, a scenario last seen in the 1970s when the economy fell into recession while inflation remained high.
Trump Announces Chip Tariffs – A Return to Tech Protectionism
In an interview with CNBC, Donald Trump announced that he will release new tariffs on chips and semiconductors next week, with the aim of bringing manufacturing back to the US. According to him, the majority of advanced chips today come from Taiwan (TSMC), which Trump considers a “geopolitical risk.” Furthermore, he criticized Jerome Powell as “Too Late Powell” for always acting too slowly, both in raising and lowering interest rates. This is a clear signal that if Trump is elected, US monetary and trade policies could see a significant reversal.
Bitcoin: ETF Flows Remain Positive, Companies Continue Accumulating
Despite a slight correction in the BTC price, capital continues to flow into US Bitcoin ETFs. The Ark Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw an increase in holdings from the Michigan state pension fund, which raised its investment from 100,000 to 300,000 shares, with a total value of over $10.7 million. Unitronix Corp (US) also announced it has begun reserving BTC, with an initial purchase of 5.5 BTC. Exodus Movement bought an additional 29 BTC in July, bringing its total holdings to 325 BTC.
SEC Clarifies Staking Rules – Brazil Considers Bitcoin Reserves
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has declared that some forms of liquid staking may not be classified as securities, meaning they would not require registration. This is a positive development for the staking segment within crypto. Concurrently, the Brazilian Congress has scheduled a hearing for August 20th to discuss a proposal to use 5% of its national reserves (approximately $18.6 billion) to invest in Bitcoin. If passed, this would be a historic move, placing Brazil among the nations with official BTC reserves.
President Trump Prepares to Sign Executive Order to Protect Crypto Companies
Trump stated that he will sign an executive order to protect crypto companies from financial discrimination, particularly from banks that might cut services for political or ideological reasons. Specifically, the order would:
- Investigate banks that discriminate against crypto businesses.
- Impose heavy penalties on banks that cut services to crypto companies.
- Prohibit the use of financial tools for “political manipulation.”
Preparing for Instability Ahead of September
We are entering a sensitive period:
- Weak services data and a correction in the US stock market.
- Trump is continuing his protectionist policies and fiercely criticizing the Fed, signaling political instability if he is elected.
- The crypto market is still receiving sustained capital flows, particularly through ETFs and publicly traded companies.
This phase demands close observation of major capital flows, especially from ETFs, macroeconomic reports, and the political views of presidential candidates. BTC is in a critical observation zone around $57,000–$59,000.
Disclaimer:This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research before making investment decisions.
